Planning Commission - Regular Meeting

got an email from the city a year ago or so and um that kind of motivated me along with our own goals as a family to look into a perfect space for our business for our vision we decided to purchase our own property my son is 18 so we didn't want it to commit to another five years of Lee uh we did all the process with the city and we found this perfect location there's this topic about the city that it's really hard to deal with them then they make the process really hard well that was not my experience I can tell you I was a little bit nervous to to do all the process with you know permit zoning building from the beginning to the end I had a very smooth process there was a group of uh people work with the city for my project Dan was like a mediator you know and and she was always making sure that everything was going to be smooth and Mr Dell he took time off his work to meet us here uh with my contractor um to make sure that we were doing things correctly I don't see that happening in other cities I I network with other business owners and gilders scotdale and the way how this city is it's it's very particular they're really good because we're a small community so we're family at the end of the day I think and that's how they treat you they they don't treat you just as a business owner they care about you they really care about your business like when at the moment you think oh my God how stressful it's at the end of the day you realize as a business owner they're trying to protect you and that's what I'm most grateful

for e e e

e e I got an email from the city a year ago or so and um that kind of multi ated me along with our own goals as a family to look into a perfect space for our business for our vision we decided to purchase our own property my son is 18 so we didn't wanted to commit to another 5 years of lease uh we did all the process with the city and we found this perfect location there's this topic about the SE then it's really hard to deal with them then they make the process really hard well that was not my experience I can tell you I was a little bit nervous to to do all the process with you know permit zoning building from the beginning to the end I had a very smooth process there was a group of uh people

working with the city for my project Danel is like a mediator you know and and she was always making sure that everything was going to be smooth and Mr Dell he took time off his work to meet us here uh with my contractor um to make sure that we were doing things correctly I don't see that happening in other cities I I network with other business owners and gilber scotdale and the way how this city is it's it's very particular they're really good because we're a small community so we're family at the end of the day I think and that's how they treat you they they don't treat you just as a business owner they care about you they really care about your business like when at the moment you think oh my God how stressful it's at the end of the day you realize as a business owner they're trying to protect you and that's what I'm most grateful for e

e e e e I got an email from the city a year ago or so and um that kind of motivated me

along with our own goals as a family to look into a space for our business for our vision we decided to purchase our own property my son is 18 so we didn't want it to commit to another five years of lease uh we did all the process with the city and we found this perfect location there's this topic about the city then it's really hard to deal with them then they make the process really hard well that was not my experience I can tell you I was a little bit nervous to to do all the process with you know permit zoning building from the beginning to the end I had a very smooth process there was a group of uh people working with the city for my project Dan was like a mediator you know and and she was always making sure that everything was going to be smooth and M Dell he took time off his work to meet us here uh with my contractor um to make sure that we were doing things correctly I don't see that happening in other cities I I network with other business owners and gilber scotdale and the way how this city is it's it's very particular they're really good because we're a small community so we're family at the end of the day I think and that's how they treat you they they don't treat you just as a business owner they care about you they really care about your business like when at the moment you think oh my God how stressful it's at the end of the day you realize as a business owner they're trying to protect you and that's what I'm most grateful

for e e e

e e I got an email from the city a year ago or so and um that kind of motivated me along with our own goals as a family to look into a perfect space for our business for our vision we decided to purchase our own property my son is 18 so we didn't want it to commit to another 5 years of lease uh we did all the process with the city and we found this perfect location there's this topic about the city then it's really hard to deal with them then they make the process really hard well that was not my experience I can tell you I was a little bit nervous to to do all the process with you know permit zoning building from the beginning to the end I had a very smooth process there was a group of uh people working with the city for my project Dan was like a mediator you know and and she was always making sure that everything was going to be smooth and Mr Dell he

took time off his work to meet us here uh with my contractor um to make sure that we were doing things correctly I don't see that happening in other cities I I network with other business owners and gilber Scottdale and the way how this city is it's it's very particular they're really good because we're a small community so we're family at the end of the day I think and that's how they treat you they they don't treat you just as a business owner they care about you they really care about your business like when at the moment you think oh my God how stressful it's at the end of the day you realize as a business owner they're trying to protect you and that's what I'm most grateful for e

e e e e I got an email from the city a year ago or so and um that kind of motivated me along with our own goals as a family to look into a perfect space for our business for our vision we decided to purchase our own property my son is

18 so we didn't want to commit to another five years of uh we did all the process with the city and we found this perfect location there's this topic about the city then it's really hard to deal with them then they make the process really hard well that was not my experience I can tell you I was a little bit nervous to to do all the process with you know permit zoning building from the beginning to the end I had a very smooth process there was a group of uh people working with the city for my project Dan was like a mediator you know and and she was always making sure that everything was going to be a smooth and Mr Dell he took time off his work to meet us here uh with my contractor um to make sure that we were doing things correctly I don't see that happening in other cities I I network with other business owners and Gilbert scotdale and the way how this city is it's it's very particular they're really good because we're a small community so we're family at the end of the day I think and that's how they treat you they they don't treat you just as a business owner they care about you they really care about your business like when at the moment you think oh my God how stressful it's at the end of the day you realize as a business owner they're trying to protect you and that's what I'm most grateful for

e e e e e

I got an email from the city a year ago or so and um that kind of motivated me along with our own goals as a family to look into a perfect space for our business for our vision we decided to purchase our own property my son is 18 so we didn't want to commit to another five years of leas uh we did all the process with the city and we found this perfect location there's this topic about the city then it's really hard to deal with them then they make the process really hard well that was not my experience I can tell you I was a little bit nervous to to do all the process with you know permit zoning building from the beginning to the end I had a very smooth process there was a group of uh people working with the city for my project Dan was like a mediator you know and and she was always making sure then everything was going to be smooth and Mr Dell he took time off his work to meet us here uh with my contractor um to make sure that we were doing things correctly I don't see that happening in other cities I I nwork with other business owners and gilber scotdale and the way how this city is is it's it's very particular they're really good because we're a small community so we're family at the end of the day I think and that's how they treat you they they don't treat you just as a business owner they care about you they really care about your business like when at the moment you think oh my God how stressful it's at the end of the day

you e we're going to call to order the Planning and Zoning Commission meeting on Monday March 24th at or at 6 PM uh we will have the invocation by commissioner Yokum followed by the Pledge of Allegiance by commissioner Robertson please rise if you're able to dear heavenly father we meet to serve our community to use our resources wisely and well to represent all members of our community fairly and to make decisions that promote the common and good we recognize our responsibility to the past and to the Future and the rights and needs of both individuals and the community bless this commission our city leaders our fellow marops and the men and women in uniform who provide us the opportunity and the freedom to do so as trusted servants we seek blessings on our deliberations and on our efforts here today may we act wisely and well in your name we pray amen flag of the United States of America and to the Republic which it stands one nation under God indivisible with liberty and justice for all that'll take us to roll

call commissioner brms here commissioner Robertson here Vice chair wates here chair Singleton here commissioner Yokum here commissioner CL here and commissioner Thomas here we do have a quorum thank you that'll take us to call to the public if you wish to speak please complete a speaker card and submit it to the chairman prior to the start of the meeting the procedures to follow if you address the commission are commission requests that you express your ideas in 3 minutes or less and refrain from any personal attacks or derogatory statements about any City employee a fellow citizen or anyone else whether in the audience or not the chairman will limit discussion whenever he deems such an action appropriate to the proper conduct of the meeting that I'll open the call to the public seeing none I will close the call to the public that'll take us to item 4.1 the minutes Commissioners any discussions do I have a motion motion to approve the minutes I second it all right approved or motion by commissioner Robertson and second by commissioner Thomas all in favor say I I I I all opposed the motion passes it'll take us to agenda item 5.1 continued Zone 25-1 Zone 25-1 Maricopa Museum reone continued a request by the city of Maricopa to rezone assessor parcel number 512- 01-10 approximately 2 and half AC of land from single family residence planned area development cr3p to public institutional Pi located at 20864 North Smith Farms Road Maricopa AZ 85138 this is for discussion and action lar take it away all right thank you chair Vice chair Commissioners L

Mason development services uh this is for America open Museum zo1 25-01 um this is a city initiated rezone to reone uh 2 and a half acre property from cr3 planned area development to public institutional this is just under uh quarter of a mile south uh north of Edison Road on North Butterfield Parkway this case is continued from March 10th at our last meeting during the public hearing the commission um expressed an interest for additional information site plan to discuss site functionality and any um um impacts to the neighborhood uh these are the existing conditions on the site you can see access from North Butterfield Parkway and open access from North Smith Farms Road um this is Asis and not too much expected on the next slide I'll show you what are the proposals are the information we have um we expect the main entrance in yellow to be expanded um the site parking we think is is adequate enough uh there may be you know we do discuss additional Ada potentially uh the houses to remain the same no um new structures added to the property on the east side we expect um gated emergency access only some view fencing and closing existing access to the site um that's all I all we have in terms of a concept ual site plan so let me just jump to my next slide please um we do believe um that this um rezone is in conformance with the general plan um pulling a couple of General plan objectives um promote social and

cultural ties to the community Through public gathering spaces neighborhood theming and well-connected communities as well as preserve history and culture through public facilities and private Partnerships in the form of a history museum AUD atorium Cultural Center Etc um conformance to the zoning ordinance for your review uh is this proposed to proposal to rezone to public institutional consistent with the general plan uh if any change in District boundaries is necessary to achieve the balance of land uses desired by the city consistent with the general plan and to increase the inventory of land within a giv given zoning district and if the Amendment will promotee the growth of the city in an orderly manner and protect the public health safety peace comfort and uh General Welfare with that U showing you the public Outreach uh noting our last meeting on March 10th still to date only one letter was received opposing the request um staff recommends the Planning Commission forward a favorable recommendation to the council to approve case z n 25-01 as outlined in the report that concludes my presentation does the commission have any questions thank you Larie uh before I go to the commission I do want to open this up for public comment as I do have a speaker card um from Peg chapitos do you want to come up yep Commissioners comments through the chair L there was discussion last time about bus parking and bus access has that been discussed on this new site site plan um this was very conceptual we discussed bus parking so what we're

discussing is is the area outside potentially if that were ever to come up that there would be no bus um access on the site itself but noting the um Smith Farms Road to the east as being a um lengthy enough space for a bus to park with that pedestrian access and and a closed gate but that's very throwing ideas in into the air that if if that were to be the case it appears the site could support that not that it's planned yeah I think that was one of the concerns from you know at Le one or two of the people that spoke you know having bus access uh directly on Smith Farms Road coming through the community versus uh you know having it uh you know more through the direct access on on the opposite side and having concerns of and I I share a concern you know you got kids possibly trying to run over into the park across the street and and so on so I I kind of share some of the same concerns with having the bus traffic go through there um okay thank you so commission one Mr chair hold on one second uh one thing I do want to reiterate is this is for the rezoning uh anything site plan related would come up later so just do keep that in mind during your questions or comments commissioner Yokum I would like to make a motion that we approve second yeah discussion okay have I fully fully understand that um we're in the zoning phase and it's conceptual I do support the project as a whole however we did have a public

hearing where people spoke for and against it and it was it revolved around bus access from the interior Smith Farms Road so now we're hearing that buses won't have access direct access to the property which tells me that if buses do come in and they don't leave and go to lunch and come back to pick the kids up they'll be parked somewhere along smithing or Smith Farms Road um and I I realized this point in the game is not where we should be too concerned about that but because we had the public hearing and they brought that concern to us it's appropriate for us to talk about it I hope that the city as this project moves along in its development would consider a loop road similar to the one off of Smith Farm Road to be off of Butterfield Parkway if you look to the south of the existing G you can look see a little bump out there almost looks like at one time there may have been a gate or a road there who knows but there is room I rode it I walked it U several times in the last week or so there is room to put a loop in there where you can drop off kids and even still Park and not affect anybody coming into the uh Through The Pedestrian access so it is still a concern and I would hope that the city as it progresses would consider that in the development of the project that we consider bus access only off of um Butterfield Parkway by installing a loop road which there is room to to have but I am in favor of this zoning change at this point Thank You Lor quind did you want to any any further discussion questions hello Commissioners uh my name is quin canal the community enrichment director I'm representing as the applicant for the city and I just wanted to speak a little bit to the the

questions that had uh Arisen and hopefully shed a little light again on the this and understanding of course the process and not getting ahead of that process um and talk a little bit about what the city is aware of for the intent of this property and certainly be aware that the city has even before public comment those questions we were taking a look at he does this work for that uh this site built in 1956 was owned by John and Mary Lou Smith foundy members of our community uh the reason that many of us are here in this room are because of conversations that happened in this home so when they had the opportunity to uh sell this home or figure out what they wanted to do with it they approached the city and said would the city have interest in uh preserving this for historical purposes uh that's where the conversation began so of of course we are cognizant and aware that in terms of it being situated in the middle of a neighborhood is not ideal it's not where the city chose the spot it's where the city where the uh home exists so we uh absolutely will be cognizant as we move forward towards those stages of figuring out what a site plan looks like we'll ask those questions of okay what's the impact going to be questions about buses again being slightly premature because the intent of the uh organization to operate it the Historical Society may say they have no interest in running buses when they say if they say uh we are interested in running buses we'll have to take a look at what impact that would have we are aware that the community even regard before this becomes a historical site already had some concerns about potential traffic in there so we of course will want to be cognizant of that and as those specifics are developed of here's the site plan here's what the usage will be uh those will all be topics of conversation and will be openly presented for

consideration and we'll have to make that determination of is this that uh right opportunity but at this stage we're saying this is a unique opport opportunity for Maricopa to preserve what is almost extinct in our city which is original pieces of History many of the which were lost to flood and fire as many of you know so uh that's our interest in saying can we make this what we hope it can be okay let let's explore that with this partnering group and see what um proposals come forward and we're based off of what the Historical Society has already established their reputation for being able to produce very excited for their possibilities but we need we'll need to see what those can be so this is the stage of saying can we can we explore this thank you when uh before I go to public comment Commissioners any other comments I just I just have a comment in general the Maricopa has hisorical Society added Community enrichment with the museum that they have established and I think that this Museum will add enrichment to the community too I think it I think we need it and uh I'm a champion for it any other comments from the Commissioners Peg do you still want to come up talk hi Peg chapados um Commissioners I'm here again I was here on the 10th to voice my support in approving this zoning code change I'm here again to voice that support and I've taken the Liberty to read all the supporting documentation that was attached to this agenda item I totally understand and I empathize with the concerns expressed by my neighbors in The Villages but again going back to what the intent of this building is I don't think you're going to see a lot of buses if any come through here the museum won't be be

operating seven days a week 8 to 10 hours a day I think it's going to be a by reservation or appointment only site and I think the crowds are going to be limited so I see minimal impact to the neighborhood um quite frankly as I expressed earlier I think there's more impact to the traffic in the neighborhood when the buses come through in the morning and the afternoon to pick up and drop the kids off RVs come through our neighborhood emergency vehicles come through our neighborhood so I don't foresee this as being a huge impact um but in working all these years with the Historical Society I know that they are going to be good stewards of this facility as well as the policies and procedures and they're going to be good neighbors because that's who they are so thank you for this opportunity and please support this zoning code change that was the only speaker card I had does anybody else want to come forward and speak on this no okay we do have a motion in a second already on the table so Commissioners all in favor say I I I I all against the motion passes that will take us to item 5.2 Cup 25-01 this is a public hearing cup 25-1 smart link for AT&T a request by smartlink on behalf of AT&T to collocate equipment onto an existing cell tower the proposed modification will increase the height of the existing monopole by 14 ft the site generally located at 426 6 West Rancho Eldorado Parkway within city of Maricopa Incorporated limits this is for discussion and action lar take it away all right thank you chair Vice chair Commissioners the details of this request typically uh these tend to come in as collocations on existing Towers however this site um uh we had in our zoning code uh has a limit of 75 ft as a height so we are needing to come and

present this to you for your review and approval um the existing Tower was approved under cup 23-2 uh with a tower height of 64 feet with a stealth design adding it adding a few feet to 69.5 the proposed height increase is 14 feet bringing the tower height to 78 feet with a stealth design adding up to 82 I'm sorry 83 feet again this were they're seeking that administrative relief from the Planning and Zoning Commission um more information here I just want to note that in addition to the 14 feet the the zoning code does have a 100% setback we do meet that on the south that's for your consideration um to the east as well um this is just showing before and after these are the coverage maps of of the impact that this height increase would uh provide for customers uh they the way that these maps are understood um from the applicant is that this is increasing coverage for people inside their homes um staff finds that this proposed development is consistent with the general plan um of medium density residential and if approved the proposal will meet the requirements of the sub Suburban Ranch zoning district and if approved by the commission will meet the requirements outlined in section 18 of the ordinance this is the public Outreach conducted by the applicant and to finish staff recommends the commission approve case cup 25-01 subject to the conditions of approval um or as amended by the commission that concludes my presentation on this item does the

commission have any questions thank you L uh Commissioners any questions ju just one question does the city have any concern about the fact that the tower exceeding the 100 foot height setback affects the setback from other Lots um do you have any problem with that chairman sing I know you you're recommending approval but do you have any problem with that specific issue certainly when it came to the ride of way to the South um because it does not it would not affect uh the roadway there um no I don't think that um to the concern that I would have that that staff would review to the degree there would be your concern is if um it needs to absolutely meet the 100 foot set or 100% setback thank you that makes sense if that answers your question I have one question commissioner Robertson just one question what is stealth height what is meant by the term stealth height sure um chairman Singleton commissioner Robertson stealth is um to dis uh to disguise the tower so any branches or any additional stealth designs potentially increase the height to 83 feet that's right and yes that's seeing no other comments this is a public hearing so I will open it up for public hearing is everybody in the crowd that would like to speak on this item seeing none I will close the public hearing Commissioners can I have a motion to approve 5.2 cup 25-1 motion to approve motion by Vice chair Warz may I have a second second it by commissioner brms any other further

discussions all in favor say I I all opposed that motion passes that takes us to item 5.3 pz 25-2 on behalf of the city of Maricopa Mr Danny court with Elliot D poic LLC will present an update to the Planning and Zoning Commission on the city of Maricopa housing assessment this is an informational item only and for discussion only Rudy take it away um rol Lopez Rudy Lopez as well D sour director for City Maricopa um Commissioners chairman um I don't think I've met commissioner Thomas or commissioner Bram so if this is first time seeing you my apologies I should be here more often um by do trust our planning team um for here to represent the planning zone division for development services um I am the director of development services um we are here to present um Elliot D pollic um Danny Court will be presenting a housing assessment update um if you've been long with us here at the city of Maricopa or lived here um we started our first housing assessment back in 2017 um around the time that we definitely identified that there was definitely a need to un identify if we are in need of of other housing stock other than single family um that assessment was done properly and it did identify a a lack of housing diversity in Maricopa in 2019 we developed a plan that gave us a toolkit of what needed to be done at the time to bring another source of housing stock other than single family homes into the city of amopa since that time um obviously the in coincidentally with the market mult multif family has definitely driven itself for the past five plus years here in Maricopa um now that that plan the assessment has been somewhat now 8 years in the making we want to go ahead and do another assessment to see where we're at today in terms is there still need more

need for housing assessment where where that demographics is so we hire led poic to help us provide that information for us to to kind of in a way dovetail into now our general plan to look at what should we focusing on more or less or what is the number of barometer itself so with that being said I'm going to introduce you to Mr Danny Court to present you a full assessment of what's being presented after today's presentation this will be given to city council as a discussion only this is not for action but just for informational purpose of the assessment itself okay uh good evening Commissioners thank you for for having me uh this has been several months in the making housing has been the topic of conversation all across the country regionally in the state um and so it was very appropriate that the city of Mayor Copa um come through see what their latest housing Outlook looks like um we we delve into demographics here and uh looked at your old look at your previous housing plan to see um do the goals still make sense um what what could be taken going forward what might need to be adjusted um but we'll dive into the numbers here I've brought 35 of my favorite slides so we'll get through them together um I did notice though this is not the most most upto-date uh presentation but your the report that was sent out does have the most uh up-to-date information and I'll point out um any numbers that that differ here and we'll get you an updated presentation soon but um just wanted to introduce this talk about data sources and the limitations to it um that's that's been a a topic of conversation um all the demographic and E economic factors uh Maricopa is a a very quickly

growing Community um and then look at I look at all parts of the housing market um so just a real quick primer here uh we're looking at all influencing factors to housing including demographics your economic conditions and then as Rudy pointed out this is going to be uh used as information in your general plan and housing element and so to that extent what kind of Pol policy decisions um could be made or should be made or do you want to make in terms of encouraging different types of housing the data I live in data I I I bury myself in spreadsheets all day long I know that's not everybody's um ideal job but it is mine and so we look at data and uh the good news is for Maricopa you've reached a population that the US Census now says you're large enough that we're going to report annually on the American Community survey survey so no longer are you uh constrained by the fiveyear average um again because this has been such a dynamic market and everything's been moving quickly The Five-Year data is is once it's produced it's already outdated in terms of what what's actually happening in the housing market the bad news is is that you're still at a uh a population size that they're they're suppressing a lot of the results based on small sample size so we're getting some updated information on the annual some of it suppressed and so we're out looking for all relevant uh basically timely Market information that's accurate to supplement that Census Data uh the the city staff has been amazing at producing their internal data permits um and Economic Development opportunities and and the pipeline and things that are going on so th those have all been Incorporated we also have several data sources that we purchase um

including co-star um I've talked another apartment vendor into starting to track Maricopa so they're beginning to do that um but we've all got that in here and the data sources are listed as in each of the tables so um wanted to introduce just the demographic factors again this is just a snippet of what you'll see in the report um but we're we're very interested in population growth we've we've actually formulated two additional scenarios um above and beyond what the state's official population forecast is for Maricopa we believe it's too conservative we think your growth is going to be more robust than what Maricopa Association of governments has come up with and and the state has adopted and we'll show you why um looking at age family uh family Dynamics household size um inflation and the housing market and pricing um all kind of coming together here um probably no surprise to anybody Maricopa um has been the fastest growing municipality uh in Pinal County over the last 14 years uh official state estimate for 2024 is 73,3 residents uh so a nearly growth of 30,000 residents in the last 14 years um so you are Al you are the largest uh Incorporated municipality in panel County until Santan incorporates and and beats you at that but for now you are the largest municipality in panel County you also have some seasonal residents here so the Census count was about 1500 households are uh seasonal residents and so you know for six to seven months of the year your city Grows by three to four thousand people um that are that are visiting here that's not counted in your in your permanent residence here's the population projections that uh we discussed um your historical population estimates there again 2024

just being released as 73,3 um the population projections from from Maricopa Association of governments and and then adopted by the state were released two years ago you have exceeded population in each of those first two years of the forecast and so these uh this forecast from from mag has been reched to your current population so if you have an old report showing uh these the the forecast from the state these numbers are slightly above that because we've adjusted for your your e your accelerated population in the last two years now we uh considered the mag and SL State forecast to be uh we would call that your Baseline forecast or your most conservative forecast in our opinion um so our firm produced uh the red line there of of of forecast you'll see that there's not much difference in the short term so 25 through 28 um everyone's kind of on board with you know a a four to six% growth rate um it's it's only in the outer years uh beyond the three years where where we differ uh in opinion from M they they uh create a much more conservative forecast um lowering their annual growth rates ours were basically maintaining what we've seen in your city in terms of growth and we base that on uh the permits that are being pulled for both single family and multif family and then uh when we talked to your Economic Development folks they said we're being too conservative and and uh they believe that you're going to have even more robust growth that we're going to see tens of thousands of new jobs um these big business parks and The Innovation Park from University of Arizona as those come to fruition that's going to create more demand for housing that's to drive more population in with

that and so um considering that as well we've created this optimistic forecast so that's when that green line is basically okay these uh these big Master plans the Commerce Parks um the U OFA for the campus comes in and and does really well and and boosts that that demand source for for housing so um looking again back to demographics the agent household uh very relatively young population in Maricopa lots of families um but you also do have non-family households uh there's the census reports nearly 5,000 households of a single person so one one person household there's there's nearly 5,000 um households there there's also other types of families there's uh reported 7% are single parent households um and and again you look at at the population here very young population but um there is also an aging population as well a pretty good pretty good distribution there um all of these are to to again look at what are our household sizes what are their compositions what are the ages so that we can consider housing types that are most appropriate um assuming that residents of Maricopa want to stay in Maricopa and they have appropriate housing to to do so as they as they adjust to their uh different family compositions these are the two uh big uh conversations that we had with with economic development um some very large scale employment projects that are that are being considered and proposed there's already um you know about just under 200,000 square feet of other commercial development underway our our economic models suggest that's you know another 400 jobs that will be added once that commercial once that just the 200,000 square feet are are developed uh the two employment projects so the smart

rail Park uh currently estimated at bringing in 13,000 job creating 13,000 jobs on site and obviously you'd have some ripple effect jobs increasing that number and then the u u area of innovation um again direct on-site jobs of 11,300 other there's reports of you know ripple effect creating maybe 25 to 30,000 jobs in total once that's all underway so again depending on the timing of theel of these developments as they as they absorb or they come to Market uh you you could see higher growth projections factored into factored into our housing demand uh in terms of home price appreciation uh this is a chart that is different from your report here um the panal county assessor did report uh some condominiums in the city of Maricopa that was a head scratcher for City staff we looked at the parcels that that they said are condos they're technically they're technically condos but they are they look like single family detached homes they just are on private street without um but they're not what you would think of a of a condominium an attached product of of one or one or more stories so in the report we've aggregated that that condominium sales data in this into the single family home but uh it basically doesn't move the needle much there's there's very few um that are listed as condos so that being said um single family home prices again you're not immune to what happened all around the state and the country um took off uh postco so single family home prices in the city up 58% in the last five years to now an average of $365,000 uh the manufactured homes again not a not a huge inventory in the community but um those those prices have risen over 100% so those again averaging

287,000 um and then the double whammy of borrowing rates increasing over that time period so instead of giving getting a a 4% or a 3% mortgage we're now um you know hovering around 6 and a half to 7% mortgage um you you can see there that uh home prices did peak in 2022 and they've they've moderated some but because borrowing costs increase over that time it's actually more expensive to uh to afford the Lesser priced home today than it was in 2022 with the with the lower mortgage interest rate so right now uh that $365,000 home um you know it's it's a um a $93,000 salary to AFF to to afford that at you know spending 30% or less of your income on that um and again this this is pretty typical but um you'll you'll see in the report there Maricopa still has one of the most affordable housing stocks in the greater Phoenix area it should be on every billboard that you still have a a home that you can buy even resale or new a priced under $400,000 it's something that you just really can't find in Maricopa County anymore um so while you know you may have been used to um those those lower price points and they're much higher than than what they were five years ago it's still relatively affordable here um looking a little bit more at household characteristics um your average household size right now is three just over three persons per household one unique thing is when the when the census breaks out between owner occupied and and renter occupied units um you actually have a a a larger household size among renters than you do owners um that's usually flipped uh but that does also kind of reflect what your housing stock is the the census has not picked

up your new multif family units by and large so when they're looking at renters these are renters in single family homes in the city um which are just comprised more of families larger families and so that's what that's what's reflected in the data we expect with all these new multif family units though that um household sizes are going to continue to Trend downward toward like a greater Phoenix average of about 2.6 2.7 persons per household uh looking at income U median average income in Maricopa $977,000 the median income at 83,00 um incomes have been increasing over the last five years that's the chart to the right um so in the city of Maricopa median incomes have increased by 20% over the last five years um but you know comparing that 20% increase to household income to the 58 60% increase in home prices that's where we're getting these affordability issues that are coming in um we're going to go quickly through the the inventory of the housing that you do have um everybody knows but you know the the largest uh largest inventory in of of housing in the city of Maricopa is the single family detached unit um again as you see these are these are the numbers reported in the census and we'll we have the apartment inventory in later slides here but you see it's you know it's all in the single family detached home side um about you know 180 uh manufactured homes and when we compare that to the county the county has a much larger stock of of other types of units so you know 77% single family in the county versus 96% in Maricopa that has changed with these new apartments coming in and we'll show you um how that differs here's the permit activity that's been occurring in city of

Maricopa U again green representing single family homes that was basically uh exclusively what was what was being built in the city until the last few years so the blue representing new multif family including build for rent um we are now up to uh 1331 apartment units in the city that represents about 5% of the housing stock now and uh by the end of 2025 we expect with all of the uh with all the the apartments that are currently under construction that will be delivered that will grow to 11 11 and a half percent or or maybe a little bit more um with these new numbers here um you know we're we looked at uh different types of housing occupancy what what are people renting what are people owning again these numbers are going to change dramatically as this as the multif family inventory starts to be um recognized by census and and brought in but interesting to see um you know how many single family detached units are being rented um just under 3,300 um and then again an interesting note how many single person households we have here that are if they're a renter they're a single person renting a a full single family home three or four bedrooms um so it'll be interesting to see as these as these multif family units come on if if they decide to to adjust and and go to a smaller unit um perhaps that'll that'll be more affordable but um like we said these these the we're just going to have to continue to wait for the census to catch up to all of the activity that's happening in Maricopa and supplement with both City and and other data um the new home side these are all the active subdivisions in in Maricopa um I they did want to point out there it is also showing the the subdivision of

Amarillo Creek which is outside of City Limits but but certainly within your Market just wanted to um call that out but this is kind of a Dot Plot you know the the the x-axis is how big the homes are that are being built um so we're really averaging you know the range is um400 sare feet to 3,000 that's that's the bulk of it and then the and then the vertical axis is is what these homes are being offered at um so again at at the at the more affordably priced range around $325,000 you know all the way up to almost 600,000 um but the the the vast majority of the new homes again 1400 to 3,000 square feet and offered 325,000 to 450,000 so when we we we Circle that back to affordability at today's interest rates um you know we need $84,000 as a household income to comfortably afford that $325,000 home $116,000 as a household to comfortably afford a $450,000 home now a lot of questions get asked what if we just what if our interest rates come back down was that going to solve everything it's going to solve it's going to help a lot um and you see there we've made that calculation um for the same priced homes at a 5% interest rate a $770,000 household income for that $325,000 home and a $997,000 salary for the 450 so you see that it it does make it a lot more affordable it doesn't solve the problem U when we look at uh how your household income by by income range and we'll show you all those households there as well the housing the apartment inventory here's the current Uh current stock of Apartments um several communities 133 uh units total the last time we checked co-star uh vacancy was 28% and that just means that you know you see the the last

five communities that have opened those are still in lease up those are still being absorbed um and we've got several more but uh average rents ranging from $884 to $1,900 a month um uh looking at it by by floor plan very few Studio units the vast majority are two-bedroom units um then kind of split equally between one bedroom and three bedroom um and and here's kind of where we where we're seeing uh where as maybe five eight years ago um someone could purchase a home in the $200,000 range at a really low interest rate that's just gone um where where do those folks that are making 40 to $70,000 uh comfortably affordably own something um the the the current market rate Apartments you know a studio uh requires about a $50,000 salary a one-bedroom as well the two bedrooms $65,000 salary and a three-bedroom got to make about $770,000 to afford that that 17 $1,700 a month rent um but it's certainly a a new inventory to the city um that's providing some affordability to to folks in these income ranges the pipeline this is this is a table that differs in in your report so there are two additional uh community unities under construction I believe they're both um uh classified as affordable so they are targeted to um residents making less than than median income they'll be rent restricted and subsidized um to make them affordable for for households making you know about 60% of of area median income but so we're basically at another 2600 um units under construction compared to the 1300 that you already have now so that's a huge huge increase um in in inventory that you'll that are that'll be coming online this year and

next and then there's uh about five other communities that are approved that have not not initiated construction or pulled permits for another 863 units so a lot more inventory coming online um a mixture of the build to rent the you know the single family build to rent uh traditional Apartments market rate apartments and and affordable so there's actually there 1,00 uh units that will be coming online that are that'll be rent restricted rent subsidized um that for for affordable rental units um don't get scared at the high vacancy rates again these are brand new communities coming online um so high vacancy is to be expected um there were about 600 Apartments absorbed in the last 12 months in Maricopa so if you kind of extrapolate that forward with the new Supply coming onl line um it it could take another four years total to to completely absorb both the the excess units that you have today and the ones that are being constructed now um I don't think it'll be um I it doesn't look like an issue and and it's just you know from a from a city's perspective um I would say we have enough inventory we're ready for a new employer to come in we can show them where their employees could come and move to we've got some movein ready we don't have a housing uh we don't have a housing Supply shock right now uh we're building single family homes we're building apartments and we've got some we've got plenty of move and ready units available for that um so the the last few slides here we're looking at your future forecast so we're forecasting out 15 years when you look at the three different population forecasts um we did two two scenarios for each forecast one is if you maintained your current household size

level of three three persons per household and one if you which we think is expected is that your household size will overtime um decrease which will increase um the the housing demand based on your population growth so um if you just take the middle there basically over the next 15 years um we're expecting housing demand in Maricopa of 24,000 to 28,000 units and so when you compare that that to what you have today it's like double uh double what you currently are um in terms of housing uh if you look at that on annual basis that's 1600 to 1900 units a year you look back at the last five years you've been averaging about 1,00 units of growth so that the the current historical trend is supporting your mid-case and optimistic forecast for now um if it does end up being more like the americop association of government's forecast you're looking at like 800 to 9950 units per year um but our our expectations is that you know you you have the land you have the availability um you're the next place where growth is occurring U so we don't see this uh we don't see the trend slowing down anytime soon um affordability um the census does a really good job here um affordability is defined as not spending more than 30% of your income toward housing costs so for a renter that means your rent and your utilities if you're an owner it means your mortgage your utilities your property tax and your mortgage insurance so there's a few more few more items there when we look at this is just a snapshot of city of Maricopa residents today um and what the census is reporting is that we have already 1,800 renters in Maricopa that are overburdened by their housing costs

they're overburdened by their rent and so as a percentage of all renters that's just over 50% so just over half of all renters are spending more than 30% of their income to afford rent in Maricopa on the owner side um it's a much larger uh percentage of all all residents who are overburdened but we have just under 6,000 owners in Maricopa that are also overburdened by their housing costs so when you add those together we have about 7,800 residents um overburdened by housing costs whether it's by choice or by necessity um that's what we're dealing with and that's it's it's a function of what we might want to consider going forward can there be is there another housing product um available to these residents to maintain um their residency in Maricopa but lower their housing burden and um and be better off by by not being overburdened by their housing cost so that's your current Gap today obviously with the high growth that number would continue if not solving for that problem um when we look at it by income again this is how we can decide um if there's an if there's a housing solution for these residents that are overburdened so um it's bucketed into pretty lowi income ranges um and that's what a lot of federal government programs state state programs the tax credit programs are geared toward uh that there's money available and there's develop there's uh there's there's housing developers that that work with these programs but um 400 of of those of those 7,000 uh households uh earn less than $20,000 a year um so there's really no um there's really no housing product besides like a public housing unit does does Maricopa want to get into the housing business do they want to develop housing manage

housing that is set aside as a public housing unit where you just cap the rent at 30% of of the income no matter what it is um that's those that's the type of income that that would qualify for those kinds of units um so we've got 400 households um in that category there's another 2200 households that earn between 20 and $50,000 per year so um now we're getting into you know close to you know 30 to 40% Ami level um so as you see those proposals come in there's there's a lot of apart there's a lot of affordable apartments already approved and under construction um they all indicate which what level of Ami they're going to be targeting uh the most popular being the 60% Ami level but um something to consider when you see those applications coming in you know you have this uh you know you have this population of overburdened renters that are uh closer to the 30 or 40% Ami level and um is there any consideration that someone could come in and Target those households for for a an affordable housing program or a community um 3,300 households earning between 50 and 75 these are going to be the households uh again you these can be these can be accommodated by the private market so market rate Apartments we've shown you are affordable to households making between 50 and 75 so just getting that new inventory in it's on the way it's coming um that's going to be a great um that that's going to take care of that that issue or at least offer an affordable housing unit to those households that are currently overburdened that could move into an apartment a market rate apartment and then another 14 household, 1400 households earning $75,000 or more again this is um someone that could be uh in a in a market rate rental and uh could

also possibly find an ownership um unit that that would be affordable to them so first two definitely uh need public support um tax tax money support grants uh things like that second two uh private market market rate development can accommodate we just need to like see that Supply come in um there was a you know another request you know Maricopa is really wants to get bring new jobs to the city uh new types of jobs working really hard on that the targeted industries that coming in um we we consulted lightcast which is a a work work force software that they they did Al they do forecasts of of City level um employment markets um the the gross the the the total number I would say don't pay too much attention to they're they're basically forecasting um 1100 new jobs in the city over the next five years uh I think everyone's expecting to ex far exceed that number um but we what we really wanted to take a look at was the distribution of the types of jobs that could be coming in the types of industries that you can see so a huge range of of different industries that could be coming in here what their average earnings are and then we translated that into what a affordable housing payment would be um and then we basically made a determination again we have currently High V high mortgage interest rates so in this scenario we set it at 6 and a half% and then another scenario is if we can see some interest rate relief say it does get down to the 5% range how does that change everything so that's that was this this exercise here so at at current High interest rates if if we saw a mix of new employees coming in um that that kind of represent all of these industries

here um we're looking at like three quarters of them would would be renters in in this market and and what what what could be affordable to them and and the other quarter that that could be owners they would make enough to own a home home in Maricopa at current rates and current prices if that interest rate were to drop it drops to about 5050 so a 50/50 split um meaning U you know that that can change the needle a lot but we'll still have this need for both ownership units and rental units and um can we find some some additional ownership products that are that are less expensive and more affordable and we'll talk about that in the recommendations so um when we when we look back at the 2017 report you had zero Apartments you had only single family homes and you know it was it was very much geared toward we would really love to see some apartments get some more housing diversity in here um that again we H we're now seeing the apartments uh they're coming in they're maricopa's on the map U you've got the developers attention in terms of Apartments um but we're still missing some of these other other types of housing some some attached ownership products um some there's been some Innovation here in terms of increasing density um that's not necessarily an apartment it it could be a duplex product or a Triplex or quadplex so lots of different the the accessory dwelling unit uh discussion again adding some new Supply um for someone that would have the salary of an essential worker um that could afford to live in a Cita or a guest house or something like that increasing Supply um without without it being necessarily you know a three or four story apartment so um basically our conclusions here with this with this study here you've got a really healthy stock of ownership housing that's still

affordable to households that make at least $75,000 and your median income shows that it's higher than $75,000 so you've got a really good stock of affordable housing it's become less affordable over the last five years um but now we've introduced multif family products that are affordable to households that make 50 to $775,000 so we are addressing um a some very big chunks of the market in terms of demographics and income um we've got two apartment communities that that offer rent subsidies and we've got I think five or six more coming for 1100 more units we saw that the that the rent overburdened was 1,800 and we've got 1100 more rent restricted apartment coming in so you're going to make a big dent in that with these new uh with this new housing stock that's coming in these new apartments and you've got abundant land so there's no there's no what are we going to do with the last piece of land there's abundant land here for decades of of future development um so we've just bucketed these recommendations again these are our recommendations uh we'd love to get feedback from them and like uh like Rudy said our housing needs assess assment and recommendations will go to council it will inform on the general plan and the housing element and what kind of goals and strategies do you want to do to address this but these are our recommendations based on the housing assessment we had the first one to encourage small lot and attached ownership development that's just something that we still haven't seen um in Maricopa yet there's some really great products um some really great designs that you know reduce the footprint of the home this is how the private Market is addressing affordability is density um if we can increase the number of units um on on the on the parcels um get some ownership

units attached units or small lot um that will really help uh you know we're not expecting housing prices to to drop any further um when interest rates come down it could exacerbate it again so we're really looking for more housing diversity on the ownership side so that it's more affordable to households earning less than $100,000 continue the trajectory of um encouraging higher density rental products and again there's a huge scale um starting with you know the left there is just a a that's it looks like a single family home it's a duplex it's a great great looking product but um that can be an ownership or a rental product um there's there's a sliding scale of of how many units you can get on with with different types of densities and and Heights um all the way up to you know your traditional multif family development there um but again this is the P how the private Market addresses affordability is um finding ways to uh make make good looking but but uh denser developments in strategic areas throughout the city the accessory dwelling units um you know big topic down at the state but these again when when the residential lot when the single family lot the the the when the dimensions allow for it and um and it's a fortable design being able to add a little bit more housing Supply um that would be affordable again small Footprints the manufactured home Market um has made huge improvements the city already has design guidelines so again adhering to those design guidelines allowing for these manufactured homes into the market um there's again some beautiful products out there um that that don't fall into the the stigma of a mobile home or or a manufactured home park that that you may be used to um so again adhering to design standards allowing for this kind of ownership unit you know in prices have increased

dramatically for this product but it's still one of the most affordable ownership options um in the region um so continuing to support those uh those housing programs that are targeting lower income Workforce level essential worker um type Wages that's the 40% to 80% Ami level um it you know we even after these new ones come in there's still going to be a gap and we've got continued population growth that will need these um anytime you know you add a high wage worker the ripple effect is you add two more lower wage workers so the service workers the essential workers um these these this housing inventory um is is a a it's it's a a huge asset to a community um it's really great to see Maricopa kind of as they're growing adding this as opposed to building completely out and then trying to find uh find find small infill Parcels for them so uh I think you're on a great trajectory there um continuing to support those programs support the expansion of the housing government voucher programs like housing Choice vouchers and things like that um increasing the opportunities for lower income households to comfortably afford a place to live in the city and then um our last recommendation on on this uh on this presentation here is the uh the senior living AG in place um senior apartments independent living assisted living Memory Care Facilities those are still yet to be developed in the city so there is yet to be a first of when where where is our aging population if they if they're ready to move out of their home um and they want to stay in the community um so encouraging those types of development in the community so that that we have suitable housing options um across the age spectrum and with that I'll open it up to questions that you

have thanks Danny Commissioners questions comments anybody commissioner CL I'll kick it off have have several things thank you for your presentation um one of the things that I didn't didn't really notice in the report and I Know It kind of ties back a little bit more to the general so this part is actually a little bit more of a statement but it ties together one of the concerns that I have with let me back up I'm I'm I'm a proponent of multif family in higher density design and I agree that we need more of it um and I I think some of the job creators that are on that are looking here and coming here and so on um uh need it and and will support it so I am in favor of that the challenge I'm running into is what what I'm not seeing is in this report is diversity of location right now one of the challenges I think that we have as as a city is I'm going to pick on Home Depot uh currently I ran some my own numbers not too long ago within a mile of of Home Depot we have over you know roughly 3,000 home sites with more or uh 3,000 multif family units either you know open or on their way under construction construction um and I think there's even a few more to come and you know of the existing you know the the 4,000 plus units that you had mentioned that we have it's a big population in such a small area and so making sure that that we spread the love a little bit um and you know I think that's going to also help grow some of those commercial markets throughout the community that that that we want and we need um so I think that is something

that that that needs to be addressed either through this report or through the general plan but I think it's a combination of both um the one of the other areas that and like I said that was more of a statement question I have is and I don't want this to go political but it is a little bit political because I just came back from the National Association of home builders uh Builder Show in Las Vegas uh a couple weeks ago and the sentiment among the the builders the sentiment among and the the follow-up reports that I'm seeing since then is there's a lot of builders that are starting to use the RW in in re as recession there's concerns of supply of labor of interest rates not going down interest rates either remaining and possibly even increasing did Maricopa got hit really hard the last time we had a recession almost killed the city and my concern is I didn't really notice anything in your metrics that allowed for any of that especially in this year or next can you talk to that a little bit yes um and that's um that's just a function of long-term forecasting so whenever we do long-term forecasting it's um you ignore the business cycle um so yeah you could do some scenario planning if we were to go into recession over the next 12 or 24 months I think that's a that's a worthwhile effort if you want to do that I would say that the your your the makeup of what a future recession if we were to go into recession night and day to what we had before we have we have no glut of over supply of Housing and that you know may couple was the poster child of speculative building sure uh excess vacancy and then spending the next

decade absorbing all of that we we do not have that so we do not have that that housing Supply issue I I mean an over Supply issue um if we if you I would love I you know we can talk about recession right now you know Blue Chip forecasters forecasting about a 31% chance of recession over the next 12 months that's increased from December which was at 25% but that's still a pretty low level um and and there's a lot of uncertainty so this is one of the hardest times for an economist to forecast when there's a 24-hour new cycle U the threat of terrorist the removal of terrorists the reciprocity what could happen so I think what's happening is there's a lot more uncertainty and it's really hard to plan for it and when you are forced to plan for it you maybe do nothing so you know we we could see some some pullback um we are seeing you know impacts of immigration policy to our our supply of labor especially in the construction industry um so it's just hasn't none of those um concerns have really just have filtered into the hard data yet so we're actually seeing a very robust labor Supply a labor force right now you know our last six months we're averaging almost 200,000 new jobs across the United States um very low unemployment we're at 4.1% so you know we're actually in a really good place but it just doesn't feel great um in terms of sentiment so I think consumer sentiment is down um and if consumers get skittish they can stop spending their money and and create a recession um so you know there's they're very very valid points but as we stand now the economy is in a really strong position it is slowing slightly but there is you know compared to two years ago uh you know two years ago it was 65 70% calling for a

recession in the next 12 months and those that just never formulated so it's it's really hard to say um if the government really does you know cut in the way that they do and and um and try to eat into their deficit spending you know that could have a drag on the economy um will we get tax cuts or not uh the tax cuts would be an accelerator to the economy the tariffs are creating a potential uh inflationary uh issue and and a Slowdown in the economy but um we just don't know how real they are yet and it and it just hasn't filtered down into the hard data but you know I I think it's a worthwhile effort to talk about recession I just I wouldn't compare the next recession to the Great Recession of of 2007 and8 I would say if it does occur it would be you know a more shallow recession and Arizona typically does very well in recession we typically don't lose jobs uh we may go down to near zero um and then we kind of Bo boom out of them so we're in a pretty good position regionally um to weather that storm and again we're just we're not in that same you know housing related recession issue and I will to comment on your first comment too it correct that the the the report is agnostic to where these developments are taking place and if there is a concern of a concentration within a certain area of the city I think that's a great um a a great topic to address in the housing element and and the plan so we're dealing with the hard numbers but you know or maybe there's some Community feedback that you know we want to see these types of developments in strategic locations or or more spread out through through the city I think that's a great discussion to have but it you are correct that the the analysis is agnostic it's just taking the city as a whole numbers okay I have a few more items here

um sorry one of one of the other challenges that I kind of read in the report um and I understand where you're coming from and that's in relation to the you know roughly the 30% vacancy rate and I I know you said your presentation don't get to worked up over that however you know we look at a 30% vacancy rate uh apart you know multif family units in in the Southeast Valley Fenix met metro area Chandler Gilbert auki um they're all operating in 5 to 10% vacancy rates on average um most of those developers look at anything under 10 to 15 anything in the 10 to 15 range as being essentially unsustainable um for for the market you know anything lower not they're not paying the bills uh they're not covering the bills um and you know if we're already at 30 30% vacancy rate we're looking to bring on uh the your needs assessment is saying another 1500 units per year we're we're adding units to you know to fill in for units we're not even filling it you know right now and you know as industry grows I think that that Dynamic is going to change and I I would agree with that I just don't know that in the in the short term you know I see I see challenges there and I I'd hate to some to see some of these new developments that are just opening up if they can't be sustainable and you know the owners pull a plug sure yeah and I I would expect any um anything not under construction now is probably taking a hard look at that and maybe they you know two things happen everything that's being built now was a was basically underwritten in low interest rate environment so and this is happening all across greater Phoenix is we're getting an over Supply we got an over Supply in 24 we're getting a even bigger over Supply this year so those are underway they're going to be

constructed there's definitely going to be more Apartments built than renters that are going to need those apartments and so we're expecting a lull over you know in 26 and 27 and 28 so and the multif Family Market is a little bit more volatile than than the single family side so that's why I say I I believe it's it's transitory I think it could delay you know if if a developer is coming in and they can pull the same reports that that we can and they can see that vacancy rate um there is a distinction between stabilized vacancy and and overall vacancy so we're rep we're reporting overall vacancy um I don't know the all the numbers that you're pulling for Southeast Valley but those are also bigger markets that that are more mature and so they're maybe they're absorbing that but but multif family vacancy is elevated all across all across the county and it's more it's more pronounced in Faster going areas like in the West Valley goodye um that saw a lot of apartment development you you saw a lot of apartment cter ground seeing a lot um but again it's not like that amount of of Apartments is expected to be developed for every single year going forward I think this is a little bit of a bubble that will uh you'll see it drop off after 26 and then as that absorbs you I I think it'll just naturally take care of itself where you have some approved projects that may just delay if they if they expect this to you know this vacancy rate to stay elevated but it's also something to watch okay thank you um I so much of your report was based on uh um the need and I and I agree with the need for uh more affordable housing and and you know I I 100% believe that you know our community is vastly

underserved for those for those people and and we need more of it whether it be and and I like your ideas of of higher density single family you know maybe condo you know opportunities for ownership um adus things like that I'm I'm a proponent of what I didn't see see in your in your report was anything you know amop going out and and trying to attract these you know larger corporations uh larger companies to come here with the new industrial park and and some of the other things that are happening um if you follow social media locally at all everyone says we need a hospital which I agree you know there there's all these needs that our community need that you know that that we need my concern is is we're we're so laser focused on the affordable affordability side but if we get a hospital where where are the doctors going to come where are the professionals going to come that are working at Intel you know the engineers that are coming in for this you know 20 billion do plant that's 15 miles away from us we're a better resource for those employees than Queen Creek Santan Valley and so on um but they have housing product there that can you know the the the higher income levels will support we don't have much of that option here in your in your point data you know chart you had there was one Builder that was building larger homes mhm everyone else was in the kind of 2500 2800 you know square foot range and so we don't have any any that that upper move up level we don't have any Uh custom luxury um you know we we need a place for the CEOs the engineers the the the higher income earners to bring their business here and and have their business here uh can you talk to how that figures into your report at all yeah and I would say just in uh I would probably just I I think it's a valid

point like if if if it's again this is a housing needs assessment um your last your last iteration had a housing needs assessment and then a plan was formulated based on the information that they received and it was you know driven by driven by staff and elected officials and and the community so if if it's a priority I think it should become it should be part of the goal um I don't know how much because it's again not not represented in the community um and it when we're looking at the data for the types of jobs that are forecasted um you know it's usually a a very small percentage that make that executive level pay and then the rest of the you know there's a there's a range of of salaries that come in and and so I guess just looking at where the need was the the highest and greatest need was in these these lower come tears but you know again if it's a priority that that's something that you feel is uh absent in the market that you want to that you want to gear toward then you can make that a plan if it's if it's not represented in the market that's usually a higher you know it's a harder thing to go out and try to attract you know you got to bring those developers out here show them where they would develop show them where the amenities are um and it's a and it's a whole effort but if it's a priority then you should you should certainly include it well and I think that it I think it needs to be because as you said earlier for every you know single higher income earner you have to lower income earners and we still got to make room for those guys too and and you know I don't I don't know that we have a housing stock I'm not saying we need to allocate 30% of our new housing stock to you know high-end luxury homes but I think that there does need to be some allocation level uh to attract these you know uh those people um to want to come here and not Chandler not you know

Gilbert and and and having to commute yeah the typical you know areas that they think of no I I think it's great you you're you're constantly in a pro it um mentality here I mean five years ago someone came to us for an apartment study and they say how do you prove that there's demand for apartments in Maricopa when there's no apartments in Maricopa it's like yeah it's a lot harder that's not a traditional Market study when we're looking at vacancy and things like that so um so yeah I it's going to take some creativity but um but if it's a priority I I say it should be included um and the last one is is more of a statement kind of a I'm also a proponent of of adus and I've worked on numerous adus up in the Phoenix Market as as you know some of the the rules have changed and throughout the the Phoenix Metro area one of the things that I'm seeing in in in that to kind of help offset some of the some of the data points that that you presented today was you know an Adu and and it can be a difficult discussion but Adu as a rental property if Done Right can actually add especially for for people that were able to buy their homes at a at a lower price point maybe 10 years ago their mortgage isn't as higher but you know offsetting some of that that that income disparagement that that may be occurring today uh having that Adu income uh it helps with our lower income housing stock but it also helps them maintain their bills and and you know their uh operation expenses of their existing homes yeah so there is a there is a you know a ripple effect that that occurs here yeah and there there's a concerted effort especially uh for municipal municipalities when they're advertising for their jobs um to be able to make that argument you know don't I mean again you do not have the same um affordability issue as a lot of other communities but there are other municipalities we're working in presc and presc Valley you know a worker

accepts the position comes and try to find a house and then rejects the position because they can't find it but it's a it's a great uh it's a great fix for supplementing your income as a rental property to supplement that mortgage and make it affordable at at new price ranges um the only issue we're we're seeing U especially in more tourism related markets is uh you build the Adu and then it just turns into a short-term rental so again it doesn't solve for essential workers that are looking for a cheaper long-term rent but it does help supplement that that property property owners income so that's all we're kind of trying to address is let's we're just trying to find ways to continue to increase the housing Supply in innovative ways yeah very good that's all it thank you yeah any other Commissioners commissioner Robertson that's a lot to unpack a lot of lot of information a lot of data um thank you for the presentation I was struck by The Almost 100% deviation between a demand forecast between your forecast and Mags yeah how does that square how do we get 100% deviation they're cowards no uh th it's very typical in a long-term forecasting um that the first three to five years are you know uh very data very data driven they can see the pipeline coming through they can see the permanent activity happening and they've got a higher level of of certainty as to what's going to happen and then kind of just rule of thumb uh being more more conservative is is safer than being less conservative uh the Oppo I I feel the opposite is true when you're trying to plan a community when you're trying to plan for the growth of a community it actually serves you better to consider a

more aggressive forecast um so that you're preparing for that growth and if it weren't to come in you know you're you're at least preparing for it as opposed to being on your back heels seeing all this growth happen and and trying to trying to react to it so I I I again I think it's great to have this range of forecast to consider you know the official state forecast there we're just looking at the Hard data and we're looking at your trajectory we see no reason why there would be any drop off in terms of the city's growth and so it just it was just a glaring difference that we had to create a new scenario for are you both groups pulling from the same pot of data it's just a a difference of methodology and and and you could you could probably go and pick their brains um but that's that's my understanding of it is anytime we look out I mean even um if you get these uh vendors like uh esri is a you know a nationally recognized vendor of demographics and they'll show maricopa's growth 8% growth 6% growth a year and then you ask for their five-year forecast and they say oh about 1.2% growth you know it just it just doesn't when when you hit the you know so some of its algorithms that I can't quite it's a kind of a black box and you just say Okay philosophy and experience differences maybe too I just you know that's that's I have a hard time believing both of them sure one at this end and one at this end I'm going to land somewhere in the middle yeah you know my rule of thumb is I try to be retired before someone has to before I have to account for my forecast so that's I try to forecast it far enough out where I'm not here anymore I can't wait for the media reports tomorrow on this meeting but that's I mean we we try to be as transparent as possible and so we're not just saying here's what we think but you know by showing you that

historical data yes you have grown rapidly but there's also nothing there's nothing pointing us toward towards saying that you're not going to continue that that trajectory so um we found it you know that we just found it to be too conservative and we thought you needed that those additional scenarios to consider yeah commissioner y yeah I I just like to follow up on on Robert's discussion on adus uh about a year ago the Arizona legislature came within one vote of stripping us of being able to do our own zoning code and one of the suggestions that they had because there was such a critical shortage of housing was was adus and I think based on that it motivated some communities including Scottdale to uh allow adus and I think that that's something that we should look at very closely I agree yeah and and I think that continue you can count on continued legislative proposals in that way of removing the you know removing the control of of municipalities kind of trying to force this issue of by right zoning and things like that but yeah I agree because everybody and anybody I talk to whenever I have the opportunity I uh give them the ne necessary email sites and whatever so when that issue comes up again as a matter of fact I I I think it was one of the uh legislators said u i I just got tired of getting these 1300 emails so and it helps it really does yeah so I I I appreciate the efforts at the legislature in in recognizing the issue and trying to do something about it um but I think it's I think I think it's best left at at the municipal level that you have control over design standards and and density and and making sure that it that it makes sense for your

community commissioner Thomas hello um outstanding report thank you um one question I had at the very beginning you mentioned um that the report by the US um the size and the growth that this will turn into an annual um piece of a a report but at the same time you said that it will be somewhat surpassed that we won't have enough information or we'll be growing too fast or the market won't be filled for it to be accurate every year it it will really depend I it's been such a dramatic Last 5 Years that I I do think that the Census Data as soon as it comes out it's outdated for your community so the good news is is um your population size has made it so that the census will report uh these types of this type of information on an annual basis it will be a year old by the time they report it um but you'll you know you're you're catching up to it so next year in their release you're going to see oh they actually found some of our apartments and then the following year and following year but I think in terms of housing needs assessment you really do need that additional data the boots on the ground um talking to planning staff how many permits did we pull what kind of permits are there looking at you know the new Home Market that is active you know they're reporting um their sales and their products and their permits on a monthly basis you know so there's more timely information that we can use to supplement it the census does a great job you know Ro bu in terms of demographics and household composition lot lots of great information um again they are still suppressing some of that data because of your of your size um but it will I think it will continue to get better and then I think um as the as your Market maybe normalizes um which I

don't know when necessarily Maric copal will normalize you know you just on a such a fast growth Pace um that you I think it just is important to recognize that there's we want to look at all sources of data and um supplement the census with more timely information okay thank you and the last thing I would like to comment on is um your recommendations I found very interesting um the density um being a key part of development and also aging Community I I just think that's essential um that they interest in taking care of a single family dwelling but want to move into just a nice of a place and um even that dwelling may turn into a nice rental property um but um coming from the Midwest uh the city of Chicago when you heard about density that sound like projects uh but these houses uh are beautiful to be uh considered in a density uh type of area so it's changed my perspective on what a density Community would look like so thank you you're welcome yeah no there's there's such such great Innovation um and and sometimes it takes some proactive measurements from the city to to push a developer in that direction and and and do that but um yeah I think there's some beautiful beautiful products out there and again if we're not using tax money to solve the issue of affordability and we're asking the private Market to do it that's been the biggest mechanism is let me let me build a few more units and we can get that price point down yep good chair had one more in my notes that I that I skipped over I apologize um and it kind of TRS back to some of the recommendations um and I know this is a housing study not a commercial study but

what about live work you know Maricopa is in desperate need of office you know uh even small retails uh you know things like that and other cities have been able to get uh you know small infield development to you know work well with with with live work and it kind of serves both purposes um be done as a condo so there's there's ownership opportunities there for a business owner and so on so thoughts on that and as you've done more of this work I would say Li Liv work um has had a difficult time in adoption in the greater Phoenix Market um so there are some examples of it and there are also examples of it where the the the units owned above and the the space is vacant below it's it's so I would say in terms of as a horizontal mixed use uh option uh where you just have you have you know either condominiums or or some sort of residential right next to um an office park or or an office or retail or something like that where it's it's a mixed use project it's a mixed use uh Community um with with with commercial with employment with with residential but not necessarily requiring it to be a vertically mixed use where it where it's the commercial below and residential above it it could work in certain locations it's it's more more viable in a more urban setting um but I and that kind of goes back to your point of you know do we have too much multif family in in these areas of town um you really want to make sure that that that kind of residential product is strategically located maybe so that you do have a short commute time um to to an employment opportunity in the city but so so again I I'm proponent of of live

work and and walkable communities and you know pedestrian friendly or bikable you know bike from your residence to your place of work um as long as there's as long as we're not requiring it to be um a certain type look a certain way in terms of we if we want to be vertically mixed use versus versus horizontal that that would be my my two cents on that and I and I would agree with that and and you know my tieback on that would be communities where I think it's had some challenges Phoenix for instance they also have a really high uh office and Retail vacancy rate yes whereas we have none um number one number two there was a business round table that was done in December I believe it was December and one of the things you know great turnout a lot of uh small businesses from from our community we here and one of consensus of uh that was shared by so many was we're working out of our home we have a print shop in our living room because we have nowhere else to the community needs a PR shop we got business we just have nowhere to put it so you know having opportunities it speaks to we yes we need more more office space too yeah but these people are doing live work now um in our in our in our housing communities because they have nowhere else to go um and it might be just a way to kind of help bridge some of that as well yeah I would say yeah start with your we have a little different start with your office yeah start getting some office in but yeah co-working space it could be amazing for that and um I know that certain municipalities the same same situation where they they do a survey and um there is a value ad if you can get someone from their outside of their res from a residential home into a into a business setting into a business a zoned you know commercially zoned area to to where they actually their businesses can expand and and things like that but yeah the you know just getting the office space here

would be would be a huge win yeah thank you awesome um I only really had one question for you um so in the report says the current housing affordability Gap or the difference between the housing available in Maricopa and the housing needed in order to ensure that working households can live in the city for reasonable cost is about 7,800 or 33.4% has has that what is the difference between the previous housing assessment and this one percentage wise if any I'll have to get that number for you I don't know if it was included in the last report or not but I I'll I'll double check on that um you're not uh you know I think we have the same table showing panal counties and and then the State of Arizona so you're not like uniquely unaffordable in terms of that um so it's just all the numbers have increased um over the last several years um but you're it's not like it's not like your number stands out when you compare yourself to other regions thank but yeah I'll get you that that time time series Commissioners commissioner B I had a quick question um well two of them my first question when you look at your the data that's on there you have your one of the first Pages was talking about your population projections with yours and like mags with yours is that same data then used to make the projections on additional you know throughout the report is that where you're basing that from is from those predictions yeah so and and we keep them all separate so we like we've translated housing demand from population from those population projections so you also have three scenarios of of housing unit demand based on those projections okay cool the next question I had was really about that projection itself because we see the mag one there's few inflection points points on there as it goes out but yours seems over almost overly

simplified and linear and so I was kind of curious on how you came up with that linear projection when that doesn't really fit our past growth patterns where it fits other types of models a little bit better so I was wondering if you could speak to that yeah and it isn't it is it does probably look graphically linear it's not um but but it is it does because it's a a 15-year time Horizon and we do not see any obstruction to to continued growth but um there I don't know if if there's not a table in there we can provide the table of of what our projected growth is it does step down so the first five years is more aggressive than the than the final 10 years so there is an inflection point after a f after the fiveyear Horizon um it's just not as dramatic as as what mag does for their inflection point okay thanks because I think that explains what it is because it just it looks on the graph nice and straight but that makes sense thank you any other comments Commissioners nope all right Rudy yeah um chair chairman Singleton um just some final comments for myself if anything um you know before I came in in 2007 the city actually never did a housing assessment until 2017 and what we're trying to do here is try to keep keep up every five years we should be doing at least an update to this itself great discussion great feedback great comments if anything um what's interesting enough our planning team um wholeheartly on everyday basis with developers are trying to get other type of density um type of development patterns for housing the cluster housing um the the the they call Auto Court type of housing developments we haven't seen that yet um but those are things that we can definitely do on on our side as well with our development stands our zoning stands as well to really encourage these types of other than single attached housing or attach housing or even

cluster housing or Flex types of housing it it can be done it has been done in Arizona we just haven't seen that market in Maricopa itself but those are our opportunities when it comes to those plary developments that's comes to you on on a every so often basis is we challenge our developers like we're hungry for another sort of Housing Development pattern other than your single family detach or small lot housing maybe it's that cluster product that's going to bring us that density that provides that sense of of neighborhood and sense of character and sense of Pride for as well because it can be done it has been done in several communities throughout the valley we just haven't in my opinion pushed enough um but these are all good feedback and definitely items that we can definitely Implement our general plan as goals and objectives and further and strengthen our code and for our code standards as well moving forward in the future so thank you all for the feedback and presentation and we'll take that on to council for recommendation as well so thank you all all right that takes us to reports from commission and or staff thank you chairman um good evening tonight and um good discussion um Danny thank you very much for coming and being with us tonight that was uh extremely enlightening uh just a couple of things for youall real quick uh we do have items on the agenda uh for two weeks from tonight so we will be back here uh the date escapes me but uh two two weeks from this evening the other thing I would like to do is just point out you know we been talking a lot about the general plan we've kicked off the general plan um we've got a survey out for Maricopa residents and I just wanted to mention it again this evening that uh if you're a Maricopa resident you can go to the city website at at maricopa.gov uh click on news and notifications which will then take you

to uh Maricopa news there's a uh link there to our community outreach and on that is a survey that can be taken I would encourage all residents to uh if you haven't taken that uh survey please go to the website uh it's going to help us in our efforts as we update this General plan moving forward uh chairman Singleton that concludes uh my update and um thank you very much thank you um I don't think we need an e session uh so that moves us to adjournment do I have a motion have a second all in favor say I this is adjourned e